Report outlines Central Otago’s potential growth over the next decade
In the past decade, Central Otago has seen rapid growth and a recently released report from the Central Otago District Council (CODC) indicates this trend is likely to continue, if not increase in speed.
The report noted Central Otago is one of the fastest growing regions in New Zealand, along with Queenstown Lakes and Selwyn districts.
At the meeting (Wednesday 27 August 2025), the Council was presented the ‘Central Otago, A Helicopter View’ report, that gave an insight into future residential development for Central Otago and the tools within the Regional Deals proposal that seek to address challenges with rapid growth.
CODC Regional Deals lead Dylan Rushbrook, advised the development forecasts are based on the assumption of ‘zero constraints’; constraints he outlined included the ability for the construction sector to meet the labour and supply needs for such growth.
In his update, Mr Rushbrook noted that with a moderate to high degree of certainty (and no constraints), 6,650 new dwellings are forecast to be built by 2035, resulting in 41,500 total residents by 2035; that equates to population growth of 63% from 2025.
Other proposed major industrial developments such as a gold mine at Bendigo and the development of an international airport at Tarras had not been factored into the forecast, Mr Rushbrook states.
“It is reasonable to expect both those projects would have an impact on the level of certainty of residential developments. Of the 6,650 new dwelling forecast, we regard 73 percent as being of a high certainty of realisation.
“[...] such growth without interventions will push social infrastructure to breaking point. It is also clear hard infrastructure delivered by Council and Central Government will not cope with such growth without investment.”
Mr Rushbrook said the forecast provides further evidence of the need for Central Otago District Council, alongside our Otago Central Lakes (OCL) partners to take a co-ordinated approach with Central Government to manage some of the unique challenges the historic and forecast rapid growth will have on the region as a whole.
“Through the construct of Regional Deals, the partners to the Otago Central Lakes proposal (CODC, QLDC, ORC and Central Government) are working through various options to plan for and manage growth across the CODC and QLDC territories.
“There is significant focus being put into connected, regional planning. Examples where work already aligns or is work is underway to create alignment is economic development, destination management, transport planning and future spatial planning.”
Central Otago Mayor Tamah Alley said Regional Deals was new territory.
“It is a completely new way of negotiating a future that genuinely looks at long term outcomes well beyond election cycles."
Mr Rushbrook agreed and said that the Council had entered into it knowing that not everything asked for in the original proposal would progress in the first deal but could through a second or third deal.
“With the forecast level of growth as outlined in this report, a co-ordinated approach between OCL and Central Government gives ourselves the best chance at best managing the impacts of exponential growth.”
He said staff and Joint Committee members would keep councillors updated as Regional Deals progressed. Council would be the final decision maker on any deal put to it.
For more information, the report is available on page 150 Central Otago, A Helicopter View: Agenda of Council meeting - Wednesday, 27 August 2025.
